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McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/29/2008 8:02:02 PM
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inthysite
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Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.
Gains for McCain in latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll
If you listen to the liberals this is the year for Democrats. According to them they should walk away with this election because of Bush's low approval rating, the economy, the war in Iraq, etc.
But according to all the polling data, even after NObama's magical mystery tour in Europe, the race is still very close.
Everyone keeps asking the same question of NObama now as they did during the primaries; "Why can't he put this away?"
Why isn't NObama running away with this election if he is "The One"?
_____________________________
Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
Be acceptable in Thy sight, O LORD, my rock and my Redeemer - Psalm 19:14
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/29/2008 8:43:44 PM
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saved9201
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Obama won't even come close no matter what the polls say. Lots of people who are polled lie, partly because they don't want to be considered racist (the bradley effect). Some lie because Obama is the "cool" pick. In the end, I believe McCain wins at least 40 states. At least. Everybody will be shocked except me because I've been saying this from the beginning.
-Julius
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/29/2008 8:54:28 PM
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Jhud
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quote:
Obama won't even come close no matter what the polls say. Lots of people who are polled lie, partly because they don't want to be considered racist (the bradley effect). Some lie because Obama is the "cool" pick. In the end, I believe McCain wins at least 40 states. At least. Everybody will be shocked except me because I've been saying this from the beginning.
Actually, I would say this time around more people are embarrassed to support McCain, in part because he seem to be doing very little to promote himself - and I have definitely seen more Obama bumber stickers and signs then McCain ones.
In fact, I don't think I have seen a single McCain sticker yet, and I drive up to two hours a day in heavy traffic.
So I will say at the very least it will be a nailbiter, down to a single state, and if McCain wins, I will be nothing short of amazed.
_____________________________
Jack
It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first..
- Ronald Reagan
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/29/2008 10:32:01 PM
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henny
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This is the first poll I've seen McCain ahead in.
The daily Gallup for today has Obama ahead by 6 points, and I assume it's the same Gallup, so I'm wondering about the discrepancy:
http://www.gallup.com/
Plus if you look at pollster.com, (a site that tracks polls state by state and tallies the electoral votes), if the election were held now, Obama could lose every single toss up state and still win:
http://www.pollster.com/
Electoral Votes shows a similar outcome:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
I'm completely pessimistic, so I think there's still a chance Obama could lose, but McCain has his work cut out for him, as the vast majority of polls over the past couple months have had Obama consistently ahead -although his lead fluctuates and hasn't gone beyond 9 or so points.
McCain has gone negative in a huge way, though, and he obviously has nothing positive to run on so he's taken to attacking Obama's character (and he, of all people, should know better given what Bush did to him in 2000). And so far Obama has just brushed the attacks off. But I think the Obama campaign needs to take off their gloves and go for the jugular.
< Message edited by henny -- 7/29/2008 10:50:24 PM >
_____________________________
Hell is other Christians.
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/29/2008 11:03:02 PM
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saved9201
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Jhud
Actually, I would say this time around more people are embarrassed to support McCain, in part because he seem to be doing very little to promote himself - and I have definitely seen more Obama bumber stickers and signs then McCain ones.
In fact, I don't think I have seen a single McCain sticker yet, and I drive up to two hours a day in heavy traffic.
McCain's campaign slogan should be, "I may not be who you really want, but if you don't vote for me you'll be stuck with the Fresh Prince of Hot Air." Or...."I may be the lesser of two evils, but Obama's the evil of two lessers."
In other words, the McCain campaign isn't about McCain, it's about Obama. NObody, even in this forum, is talking about McCain. Every thread seems to be another attempt to show how utterly despicable Obama is.
McCain to the republicans is like the girl you end up taking to the prom after the girl you really wanted turned you down. So, you don't rent the limo, don't buy the best corsage, don't rent the nicest tux, but you take her anyway, because the alternative is either staying home or taking the girl with the goatee.
-Julius
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/29/2008 11:08:16 PM
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todd_t
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I have some misgivings with the "likely" poll.
For one thing, it queried less than 800 total people - hardly a nationwide sampling. Secondly, most Gallup respondents were older voters, who heavily favor McCain so I think that skewed the results. Thirdly, it fails to take into account Third Party candidates like Nader and Barr.
Either way, I don't put much stock in any of these polls right now no matter if they lean Obama or McCain - especially when as in 2000 and '04, this election will come down to battleground states (OH, PA, MI, IA, WI, NH, VA) and who can hold them.
_____________________________
In Memoriam: 1st Sgt. Obediah Kolath, US Army, Died in Iraq War (1973-2005)
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/29/2008 11:26:38 PM
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inthysite
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quote:
Either way, I don't put much stock in any of these polls right now no matter if they lean Obama or McCain - especially when as in 2000 and '04, this election will come down to battleground states (OH, PA, MI, IA, WI, NH, VA) and who can hold them.
I agree, I don't put much stock in polls period. Just look at how wrong they were during both the Republican and Democratic primaries.
Which is why I question all the hype about NObama. As Henny has pointed out, NObama has lead for the most part in all the polls but never more than 9 points. With a supposed 4 point margin of error this indicates a very close race.
However, by watching the news, reading the papers, reading the posts here on CW you would think that NObama is running away with this thing.
Add into that the possibility of the bradley effect mentioned by saved9201, the Clinton supporters who are waiting to see if she is nominated for VP (which she won't be so those undecideds may very well swing to McCain), and the fact the NObama is counting on higher than normal turnout for black voters and voters under 35 and it may be NObama who is actually in an uphill battle but just doesn't know it. JMHO.
_____________________________
Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
Be acceptable in Thy sight, O LORD, my rock and my Redeemer - Psalm 19:14
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/29/2008 11:33:13 PM
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todd_t
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quote:
Add into that the possibility of the bradley effect mentioned by saved9201, the Clinton supporters who are waiting to see if she is nominated for VP (which she won't be so those undecideds may very well swing to McCain)
You mean the so-called PUMA PAC? It's a scam (and a weak one, at that) run by Republicans claiming to be disenfranchised ex-Hillary backers.
They're a non-factor in this election (JMHO).
_____________________________
In Memoriam: 1st Sgt. Obediah Kolath, US Army, Died in Iraq War (1973-2005)
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/30/2008 12:12:42 AM
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henny
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quote:
ORIGINAL: todd_t]
Thirdly, it fails to take into account Third Party candidates like Nader and Barr.
From most of what I've seen when Nader and Barr are factored in Obama's lead increases, which would seem to suggest that Barr is having a bigger effect than Nader.
_____________________________
Hell is other Christians.
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/30/2008 12:37:01 AM
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inthysite
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Well according to recent polls, polls taken by liberals I might add, it appears that Nader and Barr combined are little to no affect:
Our national polls by Research 2000 and Democracy Corps includes results from Ralph Nader and Bob Barr but none of our state polls today do. If these national polls are to be taken at their word then we can conclude Barr and Nader are slipping... Earlier polls had them combining for double digits but here they are combining for 5% or less.
DailyKos Polls Several States, Barr and Nader Impact Shrinking
_____________________________
Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
Be acceptable in Thy sight, O LORD, my rock and my Redeemer - Psalm 19:14
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/30/2008 1:04:55 AM
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henny
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quote:
ORIGINAL: inthysite
Well according to recent polls, polls taken by liberals I might add, it appears that Nader and Barr combined are little to no affect:
Our national polls by Research 2000 and Democracy Corps includes results from Ralph Nader and Bob Barr but none of our state polls today do. If these national polls are to be taken at their word then we can conclude Barr and Nader are slipping... Earlier polls had them combining for double digits but here they are combining for 5% or less.
DailyKos Polls Several States, Barr and Nader Impact Shrinking
3% for Barr is quite a bit, though, when things are close. I don't think anyone expects them to take more than 1-4%, but that little amount can still make a difference.
Nader only got 2.4% in the 2000 election, and while it's impossible to say for sure, I think there's a good chance had he not run much of that 2.4% could have put Gore over the edge.
_____________________________
Hell is other Christians.
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/30/2008 8:12:50 AM
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rlj
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quote:
Actually, I would say this time around more people are embarrassed to support McCain, in part because he seem to be doing very little to promote himself - and I have definitely seen more Obama bumber stickers and signs then McCain ones.
You're in Minnesota though and Mondale took your state way back in the day. I wouldn't expect to see a McCain sticker on any vehicle in that state but yours. ; )
quote:
So I will say at the very least it will be a nailbiter, down to a single state, and if McCain wins, I will be nothing short of amazed.
Those are my thoughts to but I won't be amazed if he wins. McCain is more centrist than Bush and I think will appeal to some of the right leaning Democrats. Just as there are many Republicans who are disenchanted with Bush "conservatism" there are Dems who are disenchanted with some of the extreme liberalism. If not for the low approval ratings of Bush and the current economic climate I honestly think McCain would easily win the election.
I won't be unhappy if McCain wins I have far more respect for him than I ever did Bush. I also agree with McCain on Gitmo, waterboarding and fighting the GWoT. You don't need the former 2 for success in the third.
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-Roger
This is who I'm voting for. He is from the same party I voted for last time. This is consistent with my belief in the failure of the two party system and my disgust with it.
http://www.baldwin08.com/#
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/30/2008 12:11:17 PM
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tracydolls
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quote:
You're in Minnesota though and Mondale took your state way back in the day. I wouldn't expect to see a McCain sticker on any vehicle in that state but yours. ; )
I just seen a poll that says Yo momma lost 15% since June here in Minnesota. I don't believe that. I think Jhud is right, I don't see any Mccain stickers, anywhere. I live in a "mixed" neighborhood. My neighbors are asisan, white, mexican, african, and african american.
Two blocks away where I walk is a more upscale neighborhood, still Yo Momma.
Yo Momma gonna get a landslide, somethings gonna happen with Mccain right before Election.
_____________________________
Rev 3:17 Because thou sayest, I am rich, and increased with goods, and have need of nothing; and knowest not that thou art wretched, and miserable, and poor, and blind, and naked:
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/30/2008 1:08:52 PM
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cow451
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quote:
ORIGINAL: henny
Electoral Votes shows a similar outcome:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
The only poll that means anything. Don't take my word for it, just ask Al Gore.
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/30/2008 1:09:45 PM
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inthysite
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quote:
3% for Barr is quite a bit, though, when things are close. I don't think anyone expects them to take more than 1-4%, but that little amount can still make a difference.
Nader only got 2.4% in the 2000 election, and while it's impossible to say for sure, I think there's a good chance had he not run much of that 2.4% could have put Gore over the edge.
I don't think Barr is going to be much of a factor. It looks like he may not even make it to November:
In perhaps the most desperate sounding e-mail solicitation yet this election cycle, third party Libertarian candidate Bob Barr’s campaign manager sent out a plea today to supporters to raise $15,000 each day this week—or else.
...
According to the latest report with the Federal Election Commission, Barr’s campaign had just $69,000 cash on hand at the end of June, and he raised just under $200,000 last month.
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Unless Barr can improve his standing in national polls, he will be, well, barred from taking part in the presidential debates this fall. He has an uphill climb—a candidate must appear on enough state ballots to be mathematically eligible to win the 270 electoral votes needed to secure the presidency, and he must have a 15% standing in polls “as determined by five selected national public opinion polling organizations,” according to the Commission on Presidential Debates.
Bob Barr’s Campaign to Supporters: Send Cash—Quick!
_____________________________
Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
Be acceptable in Thy sight, O LORD, my rock and my Redeemer - Psalm 19:14
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/30/2008 3:06:15 PM
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todd_t
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quote:
I don't think Barr is going to be much of a factor.... Unless Barr can improve his standing in national polls, he will be, well, barred from taking part in the presidential debates this fall.
Well, Nader's candidacy was kept at an extreme arms length from both Bush and Gore in 2000, and still had an impact on the final turnout - why couldn't Barr do the same in 2008?
All he needs most is word of mouth, and a good website - both of which are virtually free. I wouldn't count Barr out yet - at least as far as being a protest candidate who may siphon disgruntled GOP voters away from McCain.
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In Memoriam: 1st Sgt. Obediah Kolath, US Army, Died in Iraq War (1973-2005)
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/30/2008 4:23:49 PM
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inthysite
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quote:
Well, Nader's candidacy was kept at an extreme arms length from both Bush and Gore in 2000, and still had an impact on the final turnout - why couldn't Barr do the same in 2008?
All he needs most is word of mouth, and a good website - both of which are virtually free. I wouldn't count Barr out yet - at least as far as being a protest candidate who may siphon disgruntled GOP voters away from McCain.
If you want to be honest and not try and spin the results from the exit polls there is really no way of knowing if Nader affected the outcome at all.
Some experts do say that if Nader weren't in the race that Al Gore would have beat George W. Bush by 1%. However there are just as many experts who say that Bush would have done better without Nader, that Nader actually took votes away from Bush.
Bob Barr is a horse of a different color. He used to be a Republican and not many people cared for him then. Then he jumped ship and became an independent so I don't think he will take away many Republican votes. More than likely he will take mostly independents that would have gone either McCain or Obama.
I seriously doubt he will have an effect.
_____________________________
Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
Be acceptable in Thy sight, O LORD, my rock and my Redeemer - Psalm 19:14
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/30/2008 9:52:16 PM
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henny
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quote:
ORIGINAL: inthysite
I seriously doubt he will have an effect.
I predict he'll get around 2%.
Again that doesn't sound like much, but it can be a huge difference if things come down to the wire.
We'll have to wait and see, though.
_____________________________
Hell is other Christians.
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/30/2008 11:08:56 PM
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inthysite
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quote:
I predict he'll get around 2%.
Again that doesn't sound like much, but it can be a huge difference if things come down to the wire.
We'll have to wait and see, though.
Whether or not he has an effect would depend on who he pulls voters from. Will he get people who would have voted for McCain, NObama, or both.
Just like with Nader there is no real way of knowing. I tend to feel that he will pull votes from both candidates by taking mostly independents who are undecided, and a few Republicans and Democrats who are fed up with their parties.
_____________________________
Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
Be acceptable in Thy sight, O LORD, my rock and my Redeemer - Psalm 19:14
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/31/2008 1:48:59 AM
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saved9201
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When this election is over, the term bradley effect will give rise to a new term, "Obama effect", where a people not only respond to pollsters as if they're going to vote for a certain guy, but they put on bumper stickers, attend rallies, cheer, do the wave - and all the time, have no intention of voting for him. Some of y'all are scared to death of this guy, but I predict his political career will be finished after November. When Obama wins less than 10 states - and I'm being generous - remember where you heard it first.
- Julius
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 7/31/2008 11:26:43 AM
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inthysite
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quote:
Some of y'all are scared to death of this guy
Yes, I'm scared of this guy but not for the reasons you think. Not because of his race, nor his middle name, nor even his religious beliefs.
No, I'm more afraid of his policies, his judgments and what he will do to this country. I won't go into detail here because I don't want to get off topic. You can read my view about NObama on the other thread discussing this.
_____________________________
Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
Be acceptable in Thy sight, O LORD, my rock and my Redeemer - Psalm 19:14
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RE: McCain Ahead in Latest USA Today/Gallup Poll - 8/1/2008 12:24:27 AM
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inthysite
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PRINCETON, NJ -- The race for the presidency has moved back into a statistical tie in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update of national registered voters, with Barack Obama now ahead of John McCain by just one percentage point, 45% to 44%.
Today's results are based on Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 28-30.
The latest three-day average confirms that Obama was unable to solidify the significant lead he briefly enjoyed among registered voters at the height of publicity surrounding his weeklong visit to Afghanistan, Iraq, the Middle East, and Europe. Gallup tracking showed Obama's lead rising at one point as high as nine percentage points (for the average from last Thursday, Friday, and Saturday), but the presumptive Democratic nominee has been losing ground since that point.
Gallup Daily: Obama 45%, McCain 44%
_____________________________
Let the words of my mouth and the meditation of my heart
Be acceptable in Thy sight, O LORD, my rock and my Redeemer - Psalm 19:14
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