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vajent -> RE: Should Hillary drop out now and support Obama? (4/4/2008 10:56:57 AM)
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A few things: 1) The only way that Hillary has any real chance is if Florida and Michigan are redone, and that she wins them both big. 2) Arguing that she should stay in the race because she's not that far behind is problematic, because she's actually quite a ways behind when one considers how few states are left on the voting docket. Combine that with the proportional allocation of delegates, and the math just doesn't add up. She needs to win Pennsylvania by better than 2 to 1 just to seriously get back in the game, and there's no indication that anything like that is remotely gonna happen. 3) The idear that the superdelegates are somehow gonna overturn the pledged delegate count and the popular vote total is a Washington media obsession that has absolutely zero legs. It ain't gonna happen, no matter how much some people wish it might, and no matter how much the press plays up the possibility. It ain't gonna happen, period. The superdelegates are merely gonna ratify the voting results. The superdelegates are not gonna bail out Hillary if she's trailing in pledged delegates and the vote count. 4) Hillary knows #3 is true, because that's why she's now making noise about trying to convert PLEDGED delegates away from Obama. It's all very Clintonian - instead of arguing about the definition of 'is', Hillary now wants to say that 'pledged' doesn't mean 'committed'. It's a total act of desperation on her part. The bottom line is that Hillary's only real hope rests on the Democrats sorting out the Florida and Michigan debacle in a way that she comes out way ahead. Is it possible? I suppose. Is it likely? No way. Obama has the momentum, the money, the media, and the votes and delegates. It's still technically possible for Hillary to win, but her odds are very long now. And at some point, Democrats at large have to ask whether her candidacy has reached a point where it's doing more harm than good, and whether ego and lust for power have replaced economy of effort. If the goal is to beat the Republicans, is Hillary's campaign helping or hurting that effort, given her increasingly unrealistic odds of being the nominee? Put simply, Democrats have to ask the same question as Republicans - is it more important for us to make a statement and lose, or to come together and win? Republicans haven't answered that question yet, and that's part of why they're in a lot of trouble. But Democrats are starting to flirt with the same kind of trouble. Obama's gonna be the guy. The only issue now is how bloody the battle will be before this outcome is official, and how bitter the lasting affects might be.
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